The Left can’t believe it. With less than a month until election day, their chances at a victory are almost zero.
And the Democrats have smashed the panic button over this latest election news that’s rocked Capitol Hill.
Republicans are on track to gain control of the Senate next year, with GOP candidate Tim Sheehy leading by eight percentage points in the race to flip one of Montana’s two Senate seats, according to a recent poll.
A New York Times/Siena College poll, released Thursday, reveals Sheehy is ahead of the Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, capturing 52% of the likely voters compared to Tester’s 44%.
Alongside this, Republicans are widely expected to claim West Virginia’s Senate seat, currently held by retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. If these two seats flip, it would give Republicans a 51-49 majority in the Senate, barring any surprising upsets within their ranks.
According to the same poll, two other Republican senators, Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida, are ahead in their races. Cruz holds a slim 48%-44% lead over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), within the poll’s margin of error, while Scott has a more comfortable 49%-40% advantage over former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
Interestingly, though, all three of these senators are trailing former President Donald Trump by significant margins. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by seven percentage points in Texas (49%-42%), 13 points in Florida (53%-40%), and a striking 17 points in Montana (56%-39%).
For voters across these states, the economy remains the top concern. In Montana, however, immigration is equally important to 22% of likely voters.
Meanwhile, in Nebraska, Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is expected to retain her seat. However, independent candidate Dan Osborn, with his strong union ties and working-class background, has gained momentum in recent polls.
As the Senate remains closely divided, the vice president’s tie-breaking power becomes a frequent focus of Republican ads targeting Democratic incumbents who supported key pieces of the Biden-Harris agenda.
In August, former President Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, visited Montana, following Trump’s endorsement of Sheehy, a successful businessman and former Navy SEAL, earlier in the year.
The Montana Senate race has seen an enormous $265 million spent on TV ads, reflecting the high stakes for both parties in a state that Trump won by 16 percentage points in the 2020 election.
Beyond Montana and West Virginia, Democrats are defending several other vulnerable seats.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, and Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio are all locked in competitive races, while in Michigan, the retirement of Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow has opened up another potential battleground.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Baldwin and Casey are holding slim leads in their respective “blue wall” states, ahead by just 3.7% and 3.9%.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican candidate Mike Rogers by only two points, indicating a tight contest.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has rated most of these races as toss-ups, with the exception of Pennsylvania, which is considered “slightly Democratic” in favor of Casey.
The Times/Siena poll conducted its surveys between October 5-8 in Montana, September 29-October 4 in Texas, and September 29-October 6 in Florida.
Each survey had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, with voter samples ranging from 617 to 656 participants across the states.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
