U.S. Senate news has all of Washington, D.C. on eggshells

john cornyn

There’s a major U.S. Senate showdown taking place. It’s piqued everyone’s attention.

That’s why this U.S. Senate news has all of Washington, D.C. on eggshells.

Cornyn Edges Paxton in Tight Contest, But Doubts Linger Over Establishment Ties

In the heated battle for Texas’s Republican Senate seat, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn holds a slim one-point lead over state Attorney General Ken Paxton, with a large chunk of voters still on the fence, fresh polling shows. The Emerson College survey, out Friday, puts Cornyn at 30% and Paxton at 29%, while 37% remain undecided. This marks a sharp shift from earlier polls that had Paxton ahead by double digits, though Cornyn’s edge falls within the 4.4% margin of error.

“Seven months ahead of the Republican primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up, with 37% of voters still undecided,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release announcing the survey.

Cornyn, long seen as part of the GOP establishment, has faced pushback from conservative voices for his neoconservative leanings, including strong backing for U.S. military actions abroad like the Iraq War and hefty foreign aid packages to Ukraine. Critics on the right argue these positions prioritize global entanglements over America First priorities, potentially clashing with the party’s base under President Trump’s influence.

The poll arrives as Cornyn’s supporters ramp up ad spending to highlight his tenure. Allies have poured millions into positive messaging, with more pledged ahead. Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC backing Cornyn, dropped over $3 million on ads by July’s end, per the Texas Tribune. Chris LaCivita, a key figure from Trump’s 2024 campaign, advises the group.

The Senate Leadership Fund, tied to GOP Senate leaders and supporting Cornyn, has signaled to donors that holding the seat could cost between $25 million and $75 million, as Punchbowl News reported first.

The U.S. Senate seat from Texas is considered to be one of the most important seats that will likely remain Republican, unlikely to flip into Democrat hands. The reason for this is that Cornyn represents someone who has been willing to “go with the flow” of standard GOP politics, something Paxton has said he wants to shakeup.

Looking to the general election, both Republicans outpace Democrat Colin Allred, who fell short against Sen. Ted Cruz last year. Cornyn leads Allred 45% to 38%, and Paxton edges him 43% to 38%, both beyond the margin of error.

A separate July poll from the National Republican Senatorial Committee indicates Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett could surge in her primary if she jumps in, leading Allred by 15 points despite lacking statewide run experience.

Neither Cornyn nor Paxton has locked in majority support, raising the chance of a runoff if no one hits 50%. Both chase Trump’s endorsement, which he hasn’t given yet in this key contest.

With so many undecideds, Trump’s nod could tip the scales. “Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race,” Kimball added. The Emerson poll sampled 491 likely GOP primary voters over Monday and Tuesday.

Prior surveys this year favored Paxton heavily. A May poll from the Senate Leadership Fund showed him up by 16 points, and one from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center had Cornyn down by nine.

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