The Democrats have not had a good year. Their popularity has been in decline.
And the Democrat Party is in deep trouble according to sobering news that just dropped.
Democratic Party Grapples with Decline in Voter Registration
The Democratic Party is facing a daunting challenge as its voter rolls have dwindled by a staggering 4.5 million since the 2020 presidential election, a trend that could ripple through future elections, according to a fresh analysis.
Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost roughly 2.1 million registered voters across the 30 states that monitor party affiliation, based on data from L2, as reported by The New York Times. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has surged, gaining 2.4 million voters over the same period, highlighting a significant shift in political momentum.
Although Democrats still outnumber Republicans in registered voters nationwide, the picture is complicated by varying state practices.
Blue-leaning states like California, New York, and the District of Columbia allow party-specific registration, while red states such as Texas, Missouri, and Ohio do not, clouding the national tally. Despite this, the Democratic decline is unmistakable and spans the country.
In a striking development, 2024 marked the first time in six years that more new voters aligned with the Republican Party than with Democrats, raising red flags for the party.
This erosion was especially pronounced in four pivotal battleground states—Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—all of which went for Donald Trump in the November 5, 2024, election.
Michael Pruser, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, sounded a warning about the implications. “I don’t want to say, ‘the death cycle of the Democratic Party,’” he said to the Times, “but there seems to be no end to this.”
“There is no silver lining or cavalry coming across the hill. This is month after month, year after year.”
Pruser’s insights tie these losses to Trump’s landmark victory—including the first popular vote victory for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years—and signal tough challenges ahead for Democrats in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential contest.
In North Carolina, Democrats saw 115,523 voters slip away between 2020 and 2024, while Republicans added over 140,000, wiping out the Democratic registration edge, per L2 data. Comparable trends hit Arizona and Pennsylvania.
In Nevada, the Democrat Party experienced the second-steepest drop in voter share among the states analyzed, with only West Virginia seeing a sharper decline.
Even Democratic strongholds weren’t spared. New York lost 305,922 registered Democrats, and California saw a massive 680,556-voter drop over the four years.
According to The New York Times, these losses slashed the Democrats’ registration lead from almost 11 percentage points in 2020 to over six points in 2024 across the 30 states and the District of Columbia.
Experts attribute this slide to a rising tide of voters choosing independent or unaffiliated status, a trend draining both parties.
In 2018, Democrats claimed 34% of new voter registrations across the country, compared to 20% for Republicans. By 2024, Republicans had nearly caught up, capturing 29% of new registrations while Democrats fell to 26%.
As Democrats confront this shrinking voter base, the road ahead looks uncertain. The pivot toward independent voters and the Republican registration boom point to an evolving electorate that could hurt the Democrat Party for years to come.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
