The election is only a few weeks away. But the GOP is starting to fear for the worst.
As Republicans are facing a grim reality after this latest election report drops.
In the latest battle for Senate control, Democratic candidates in the ten most hotly contested races have surged ahead in fundraising, more than doubling the efforts of their Republican counterparts.
Democrats raised a staggering $203 million last quarter, nearly 2.5 times the $83 million brought in by GOP candidates.
While Republicans have raised concerns about being outpaced in this financial arms race, the gap is wider than many had anticipated.
A significant portion of the Democratic war chest came from three key Senate races in Montana, Ohio, and Texas, where each candidate pulled in at least $30 million. Montana and Ohio are shaping up to be highly competitive, though the Texas contest is expected to remain out of reach for Democrats, despite its close margins.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) raised $32.2 million, more than tripling the $9.7 million collected by his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy. As Tester fights to hold onto his seat in a deeply conservative state, the polarized political climate has added to the challenges he faces.
Meanwhile, in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) led the Republican field in fundraising, pulling in $17.2 million. However, this amount still fell short of his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX), who raised $30.3 million. The Texas race, though tight, isn’t expected to be a game-changer come Election Day.
Ohio’s Senate race is also heating up, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) raising almost five times as much as Republican Bernie Moreno. Brown secured $30.7 million last quarter compared to Moreno’s $6.5 million. As Ohio has shifted right in the post-Trump era, it has seen more TV ad spending than any other Senate race, signaling the high stakes involved.
Other states are seeing similar trends. In Florida, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell raised $15.1 million, three times the $4.9 million brought in by Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL).
Swing-state races in Michigan and Arizona also show Democrats outpacing Republicans. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) raised $18.2 million, a four-to-one advantage over former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who pulled in $4.5 million. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) collected $21.8 million, nearly 2.5 times as much as Republican Kari Lake’s nearly $9 million.
Wisconsin and Nevada displayed closer contests in the fundraising race. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) raised $13.6 million, edging out her challenger Eric Hovde, who brought in $11.6 million.
Hovde largely self-funded his campaign with a $7 million loan. Nevada saw a smaller disparity, with Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) raising $12.1 million to Republican Sam Brown’s $8.5 million.
One of the more surprising developments came from Nebraska, where incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) raised just $1.2 million, far behind independent Dan Osborn’s $3.3 million.
Despite the modest financial haul, Fischer remains narrowly ahead in polls, with FiveThirtyEight showing her less than two points in front of Osborn.
Despite Democrats’ strong fundraising performance, Republicans appear on track to take control of the Senate. The GOP has its eyes on several key pickups, including the seat held by Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), which seems all but certain to flip to the Republican column.
In Montana, Tester faces long odds as well. Should Republicans hold their ground in Florida, Nebraska, and Texas while flipping West Virginia and Montana, the upper chamber could fall back under GOP control.
Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently expressed concerns over the financial gap.
“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” Thielman told Politico. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”
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