The election is almost here and the polls are close. Trump needs all the help he can get if he wants to take down the Swamp again.
But a close Trump ally just threw a wrench in his campaign that is wreaking havoc.
New polling out of Iowa, a key conservative stronghold, shows Vice President Kamala Harris running surprisingly close to former President Donald Trump.
But don’t be fooled—Trump remains in a strong position, and one of his most prominent supporters may actually be skewing the results.
According to the Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of 656 likely voters, Harris trails Trump by just 4 points, 47% to 43%.
While this might look like a tightening race, it’s important to remember that Republicans hold a significant registered voter advantage in Iowa, with over 110,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.
What’s making the race appear tighter than it actually is? Enter Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent, who’s pulling 6% of the vote—largely from Trump’s base.
Kennedy’s presence is undoubtedly affecting Trump’s numbers, and despite efforts to get off the ballot in some states, Kennedy is very much in the race in Iowa.
Harris, who is generally unpopular in Iowa, is outperforming her favorability ratings. Despite trailing Trump by 4 points, her approval rating stands at a dismal 43%, with 51% of Iowans disapproving of her.
However, she’s clearly benefiting from the split caused by Kennedy’s candidacy.
One area where Harris is enjoying an edge is in voter enthusiasm.
Eighty percent of her supporters say they’re highly motivated to vote, while 74% of Trump’s supporters express the same level of enthusiasm.
Even though Harris’ backers might seem more eager, Trump’s core support remains solid, with 94% of Republicans standing by him.
Additionally, he holds a notable 41% to 36% lead among independents, a critical group in any general election.
While Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis briefly stirred things up during the GOP nomination process, Trump emerged victorious and now enjoys widespread support among Republicans.
Despite some drama with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who initially backed DeSantis, Trump remains dominant in the state. Reynolds eventually endorsed Trump in March, solidifying his standing.
The poll also highlights the familiar gender gap seen nationwide. Trump dominates with men, holding a massive 27-point lead (59% to 32%), while Harris leads among women by 17 points (53% to 36%).
Interestingly, she performs even better among suburban women, an important demographic, where she leads by a staggering 69% to 27%.
While the poll suggests a tighter race, Trump’s broad support across key demographics and his commanding lead with Republicans make it clear that he’s still the candidate to beat.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
