Former President Trump may be leading in the national Republican polls. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Because Donald Trump got hit with a reality check that spells doom for his future.
A new survey of the potential 2024 contest was released on Tuesday, and it shows a dead race between President Joe Biden, whose favorability rating has increased somewhat, and former President Trump, whose legal issues are rising.
A new survey of the potential 2024 contest was released on Tuesday, and it shows a dead race between President Joe Biden, whose favor rating has increased somewhat, and former President Trump, whose legal issues are rising.
These results are not wildly far from those of a similar NBC poll from late June, which showed Biden with a two-point lead over Trump in six key swing states. Meanwhile, between Biden and Ron DeSantis, the governor is ahead by six points in a prospective matchup against incumbent Joe Biden.
🚨SWING STATE POLL🚨
Biden: 48% (+2)
DeSantis: 50% (+6)
Source: NBC News
The eight-point difference in swing states is entirely consistent with most state level polling. pic.twitter.com/4ZpXZi4d3T
— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) June 25, 2023
The survey also found that since last July, when the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Biden’s support rating among Democratic voters has skyrocketed.
The percentage of Democrats who want Biden to run again has increased from 26% a year ago to 45% now. This progress was evident in all age groups.
Support among young adults (18–29) for Biden’s renomination more than tripled from 5% in July 2022 to 17% a year later. There was a dramatic increase in his popularity among those 65 and up, from 40% to 70%.
Now, the question is just how untethered Joe Biden has become from the average American these days.
Many Republicans and conservative voters are contending that whatever is left of the independent voting bloc in 2023, it’s not going to feel comfortable voting for an extremist President like Joe Biden.
Their argument is that in 2020, Joe Biden was sold as a moderate who anyone could get behind, but now that he’s shown his extremist hand he would have a hard time getting re-elected.
Whether or not that is true is beside the point.
The point is that Republican voters will be rolling the dice when they go to the ballot box to pick between Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis to be the Republican nominee.
Polling this far out from a general election is historically very unreliable, but it does show that it’s possible that DeSantis would fare better against Biden than Trump would.
Is it possible that’s not true due to the unreliability of polls this far out? Sure it is. But a number of polls have all been showing the same thing.
Conservative voters may feel more comfortable with Trump leading the Republican party right now, and for good reason. Trump’s four years in office were a stark difference to the political status quo Americans had been feeling for decades prior.
But the roll of the dice is in whether Trump will face another 2020 situation where independents are left on an island and will be forced to pick between two candidates they aren’t all that fond of in Biden and Trump.
It stands to reason that DeSantis does not present that issue for independents.
Stay tuned to the Federalist Wire.