Trump’s trying to be strategic. But not everything is coming easy for him.
And Donald Trump has made a surprising war declaration that has the Pentagon on high alert.
Trump’s High Hopes Clash with Putin’s Strategy in Ukraine-Russia Negotiations
President Donald Trump has expressed strong confidence in a potential breakthrough between Ukraine and Russia, predicting a deal could emerge soon. “Very good chance,” he declared this week, signaling optimism for a resolution to the ongoing conflict. Yet, security analysts warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions may not align with peace, casting doubt on the feasibility of a swift agreement.
The Trump administration’s stance has been a rollercoaster. Just last week, officials hinted at abandoning peace talks if a ceasefire remained elusive. This abrupt shift followed Trump’s campaign promise to prioritize ending the Ukraine war, leaving Washington grappling with mixed signals.
When pressed by Fox News Digital about the implications of walking away, the White House offered no clarity. Nor did it address whether the U.S. would retaliate against Putin, as Trump had previously threatened.
“Simply because Trump hasn’t announced any consequences yet does not mean that he doesn’t plan on taking some anti-Russia measures,” said Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer and Russia expert, in an interview with Fox News Digital. She suggested Trump’s aggressive economic tactics against China could serve as a warning to Putin.
“Trump almost certainly intends for his economic warfare against China to serve as an example to Putin how far Trump is willing to go to compel his adversaries to his will.”
However, Koffler noted that Russia poses a unique challenge. “But unlike the China case, there’s no similar dependence between the U.S. and Russia. Trump’s decision on Russia is much more complicated, more risky and requires more thought,” she explained.
“He may or may not take draconian economic steps against Russia, as Putin may take devastating, non-kinetic actions against the U.S.”
The stakes are high, with both leaders known for their bold approaches. “It’s Trump’s risk tolerance vs. Putin’s now,” Koffler stated. “And both like to win and both have risk tolerance way above average.”
Adding to the complexity, Trump has recently scaled back military support for Ukraine, including halting sales of Patriot missiles, which cost $1.5 billion each and have been critical in protecting Ukrainian civilians from Russian attacks.
Dan Hoffman, former CIA Moscow Station Chief, emphasized the strategic value of supporting Ukraine. “If we want to be a global superpower, and we want to deter aggression, not with U.S. troops on the ground, but in general, to deter aggression because it is good for our national security, then we should continue to support Ukraine,” he told Fox News Digital.
He highlighted the efficiency of the $66.5 billion in military aid provided to Kyiv since Russia’s 2022 invasion, a fraction of the $841.4 billion U.S. defense budget for 2024, which Trump seeks to expand. “The return on investment is pretty high,” Hoffman added.
This week, a Ukrainian delegation is meeting with Trump administration officials in London, joined by representatives from the U.K., France, and Germany. Meanwhile, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly heading to Moscow to negotiate with Russian officials. However, the Kremlin remains skeptical. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, called the invasion too “complex” for a quick resolution, cautioning against hasty deals. “It is not worth setting any rigid time frames and trying to get a settlement, a viable settlement, in a short time frame,” he explained.
Security experts echo this caution, doubting Putin’s commitment to peace. “There’s no indication that Putin wants to stop the war,” Hoffman stated. “Russia is the invader, so you have to stop them in order to have an end of the war.” He pointed out Putin’s goal of toppling Ukraine’s government, noting, “He’s going to keep fighting until he feels like he has accomplished that goal or he can’t fight anymore.”
Koffler agreed, predicting Putin will pursue a “war of attrition until Ukraine capitulates or is completely destroyed and the government collapses.” She warned that Putin might try to manipulate Trump with prolonged negotiations, saying, “Putin would like to string Trump along and will continue to try doing so.”
A recent Moscow Times report, citing sources close to Putin, suggested the Russian leader aims to reshape global influence by leveraging U.S. tensions with adversaries like Iran and North Korea. The report speculated that Putin might tempt Trump with personal incentives, such as a Moscow hotel deal, or geopolitical concessions, like a nuclear agreement with Iran or a “peace deal” in Ukraine. While unverified, Koffler believes this aligns with Putin’s tactics.
“He could promise Trump not to share certain sensitive technologies to these two [nations],” Koffler stated. “And he could convince Iran not to operationalize and weaponize its nuclear program in exchange for Trump’s promise not to target Iran’s nuclear facilities in a kinetic strike and to lift sanctions from Russia.” She stressed the importance of offering adversaries “face-saving opportunities,” a nuance she sees as lacking in U.S. diplomacy. Still, she cautioned, “Putin’s ability to convince Trump and Trump’s decision calculus are two different things.”
As negotiations unfold, the world watches a high-stakes chess match between two determined leaders, with Ukraine’s future hanging in the balance.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
