Trump’s reelection chances have taken a major hit. He’s going to have to fight tooth and nail to win back the White House.
And Donald Trump was just handed terrible news out of this swing state that could cost him the election.
Kamala Harris may be heading for a straightforward coronation at the Democratic National Convention, but her campaign is gaining momentum in the critical swing state of North Carolina, where 16 electoral votes could tip the scales in the upcoming election.
According to a fresh Survey USA poll from High Point University, conducted between August 19 and 21 during the Chicago convention, Harris holds a razor-thin lead. While the gap may be small, it carries significant implications for the race.
If Harris wins, she could secure the first Democratic victory in North Carolina since Barack Obama in 2008, which in turn was the first since Jimmy Carter’s 1976 campaign.
Among registered voters in the state, Harris is ahead 46% to 45%, with 8% still undecided. Among likely voters, her lead grows slightly, with a 48% to 46% advantage over Donald Trump.
The key for Trump, according to the poll, lies in energizing historically likely voters who are not particularly enthusiastic about the current election choices. Among voters who say they’ll “probably” vote, Trump holds a solid lead of 50% to 40%.
Similarly, he leads 39% to 32% among those who indicate only a 50% chance of voting.
A closer look reveals an interesting trend: support for Harris is significantly stronger among those who watched the Democratic National Convention. Voters who tuned in to “a lot” of the Chicago event overwhelmingly back Harris, with 73% in her corner compared to just 22% for Trump.
Meanwhile, those who caught only “a little” of the convention still lean toward Harris, 48% to 44%. On the other hand, voters who didn’t watch much of the convention are firmly in Trump’s camp, 62% to 26%.
While Harris’ appeal is linked to convention viewership, the poll shows some notable bright spots for Trump. For instance, while Black women overwhelmingly back Harris (82% to 9%), Black men are more divided.
Though 74% of Black men support Harris, Trump is securing 19% of their vote—higher than expected and not far off the 25% to 30% target his campaign has set for making inroads with this demographic.
Trump also shows strength among Latino voters, leading Harris 61% to 36%, a margin even larger than his +19 lead among white voters, 55% of whom back him. Notably, Trump also holds a 15-point lead over Harris among voters under the age of 35, with 53% supporting him.
However, Harris outpaces Trump in all other age groups, including a 48% to 43% lead among those aged 35 to 49, a 46% to 44% lead among those aged 50 to 64, and a 51% to 41% advantage with senior citizens.
Another divide emerges when looking at voters’ relationship statuses. Harris commands the single voter demographic, winning 54% to Trump’s 36%.
However, Trump fares better with engaged voters (51% to 40%), married voters (49% to 41%), and widowed voters (61% to 35%).
Harris also appears to be making progress with moderate voters, holding a 51% to 35% lead in this group.
Surprisingly, she’s even gaining ground with right-leaning voters. Among “very conservative” voters, 21% back Harris, with 3% undecided. Meanwhile, 23% of “somewhat conservative” voters support Harris, with 5% undecided and 1% backing another candidate.
Trump still holds over 70% support from these groups, but the fact that Harris is peeling away some right-wing votes in this key battleground state may be cause for concern in his campaign heading into Labor Day.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
