Election Day is here. Both presidential candidates are anxious to see the results.
But this former Obama official has smashed the panic button over Harris’s election chances.
Early Voting Surge Sparks Concern for Harris Campaign Amid Tight Race
Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is facing mounting anxiety over early voting trends that show a marked increase in Republican turnout, according to former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.
On Sunday, Messina remarked that early voting numbers are looking “a little scary” for the Harris camp. This surge in GOP participation has led several of his colleagues to reach out to him, concerned about the implications for the Democratic ticket.
Messina, appearing on MSNBC’s Inside with Jen Psaki, elaborated on the unusual shift. “The early vote numbers are a little scary,” he said. “Republicans didn’t do what they did last time. Last time, [Donald] Trump said, ‘Don’t early-vote,’ so they didn’t. Republicans do have an advantage in early-vote numbers [this time]. When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary.”
Data from a Trump campaign insider shared with the New York Post indicates significant Republican turnout spikes in battleground states where party affiliation on early votes is tracked. Compared to 2020, Republican early voting is up by 9 points in Arizona, 9 points in North Carolina, 4 points in Nevada, and a substantial 22 points in Pennsylvania among returned mail-in ballots and early votes.
However, Messina remains cautiously optimistic, pointing out areas where Democrats are still holding their ground, particularly among female voters. “Women voters make up 55% of the early voters, and in the past 10 days, young voters in these battleground states are coming out in what looks to be, for early votes, historic numbers,” Messina noted.
The Harris campaign sees this as a potential advantage, given that Democrats traditionally perform better with women voters, a demographic they’ve been keen to rally around issues like abortion rights.
Despite this silver lining, data collected by Democratic strategist Tom Bonier shows concerning dips in turnout among female voters and urban voters in several critical states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
These regions typically serve as Democratic strongholds, and decreased turnout in these areas could pose a significant challenge for Harris.
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has prioritized early voter engagement this cycle, aiming to avoid the lag that impacted them in 2020. Republicans, along with Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, have pushed their supporters to participate early, making early voting part of their strategy to close the gap with Democrats.
Most polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, with both parties bracing for a razor-thin margin in November.
Former Obama adviser David Axelrod remarked on the uncertainty of the outcome, stating, “When you have polls this close, you’re not really sure of anything… It really matters who shows up because these polls are not precise. This race is filled with uncertainty today.”
Axelrod also suggested that Trump’s recent actions could play into Harris’s advantage.
Trump has faced backlash over comments he made during a rally, where he joked that he wouldn’t “mind” if a sniper had to shoot “through the fake news” to reach him, as well as the joke about Puerto Rico made by a comedian at a recent rally at Madison Square Garden.
“He is actually abetting her message in the final week, that’s going to make Republicans uncomfortable,” Axelrod said. “I’m sure [Republicans] would love him to stay tethered to that prompter a bit more and deliver the message that they think will help him win this election. But he’s not closing well. She’s closing in a much more disciplined way.”
As early voting numbers continue to roll in, Messina highlighted that while Republicans seem to have gained a tactical edge in turnout compared to 2020, Democrats are still hopeful.
Key voting blocs, especially women, could make a difference as both sides head into the final stretch of what is shaping up to be a highly competitive race.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
