Republicans need to band together. The midterms are just around the corner.
And now a GOP Senator got hit with a primary challenge that could end their career.
The 2026 Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Texas has become highly competitive, with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn facing challenges from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt in a three-way race that recent polls show is statistically close, with no candidate holding a clear lead.
Tight Polling in the Lead-Up to March Primary
Recent surveys indicate a fragmented GOP field ahead of the March 3, 2026, primary election, where a candidate needs over 50% to avoid a runoff in late May. A J.L. Partners poll released February 5, 2026, among likely Republican primary voters showed Paxton at 27%, Hunt at 25.7%, Cornyn at 25.5%, and 21.7% undecided—a statistical tie within the margin of error. This marks a slight narrowing from a December 2025 J.L. Partners survey where Paxton led at 29%, with Cornyn and Hunt both at 24%.
A separate Cygnal poll from late January 2026 placed Paxton at 25.7%, Hunt at 25.1%, Cornyn at 22.4%, and 26.9% undecided. Head-to-head matchups from J.L. Partners found Hunt leading Cornyn 44% to 33% and Paxton 44% to 34%, while Paxton held a narrow 41% to 40% edge over Cornyn in a two-way scenario.
Cornyn, seeking a fifth term after first winning in 2002, described the race as his toughest reelection effort to date. He has emphasized his legislative record and alliances within the party.
Fundraising and Campaign Strategies
Cornyn maintains a significant financial advantage, with allies having spent over $50 million on advertising so far and plans for an additional $10 million blitz in the final weeks before the primary. In contrast, groups supporting Paxton have spent far less—under 1% of Cornyn’s total—while those backing Hunt have invested about $5.9 million.
Paxton has criticized Cornyn’s spending and effectiveness, stating on X: “He’s stolen $50+ million from races in NC, ME, MI, and GA and what does he have to show for it? He’s stuck in the mid-20s, doesn’t even know if he’ll make the runoff, and is set to lose by huge margins even if he does.”
A Cornyn campaign advisor responded: “We have a plan to win the primary and we are executing it.”
Candidate Profiles and Broader Context
- John Cornyn: The four-term senator has focused on his experience and establishment support, including outreach for endorsements. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has urged President Trump to back Cornyn, though no endorsement has been announced.
- Ken Paxton: The state attorney general since 2015 has positioned himself as a stronger conservative voice, drawing on his base despite ongoing personal and ethical controversies, including a recent divorce.
- Wesley Hunt: The Houston-area congressman entered the race in October 2025, presenting himself as a younger alternative capable of bridging traditional GOP voters and more activist elements.
Internal NRSC polling cited in reports showed Cornyn performing better than Paxton in hypothetical general election matchups against potential Democratic nominees, such as leading state legislator James Talarico by three points and Rep. Jasmine Crockett by seven, while Paxton trailed or narrowly led in similar scenarios.
The race reflects divisions within the Texas Republican Party, with significant spending and attention focused on the primary outcome that could influence the party’s direction ahead of the November 2026 general election.
