Harris needs all the support she can get from the Left. But not every liberal is on board with her campaign.
And Kamala Harris’s election chances are in the drain thanks to this former Democratic presidential candidate.
Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania remain strong, but his path could hinge on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s sustained presence in the race.
According to a recent Cygnal poll of 800 likely voters conducted on August 14-15, Kennedy’s continued candidacy may be crucial to Trump’s success.
With Kennedy still in the race, Trump holds a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, 44% to 43%, although this falls within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.41%.
Kennedy, meanwhile, garners 5% support, showing signs of a typical third-party candidate’s fade as he loses 4 percentage points from the previous month.
However, if Kennedy were to exit the race, the dynamics shift in Harris’ favor. Without Kennedy in the mix, Harris edges ahead, leading Trump 48% to 47%, with 5% of voters undecided.
Notably, when looking at those who would “definitely” vote for either candidate, Harris holds a stronger position, leading Trump 45% to 41%.
Independent voters, who would otherwise support Kennedy, are key to Harris’ advantage in a head-to-head contest. Among independents, Harris enjoys a 49% to 42% lead over Trump, with 41% firmly backing her compared to only 28% for Trump.
Kennedy’s candidacy has been marked by what some see as transactional politics. He reportedly had discussions with Trump about a potential role in a future Republican administration if he were to endorse the former president.
Additionally, Kennedy’s overtures to Harris, seeking a job in her potential administration, also fell through.
This polling data reveals an unusual incentive for Trump: Kennedy’s ongoing presence in the race could be beneficial to his campaign, as Kennedy’s fading support may prevent Harris from solidifying a broader coalition of voters.
The survey also highlights a potential misstep for Harris. Her decision to bypass Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro in favor of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has been criticized.
Shapiro remains one of the few politicians in this poll with a favorable rating, standing at +22 (56% favorable, 34% unfavorable). His popularity far exceeds Harris’ rating of -5, dragged down by 48% of respondents viewing her very unfavorably. Even worse for the Democrats, President Biden’s approval sits at an awful -17, with 57% of voters disapproving of his performance.
Shapiro’s favorability puts him well ahead of Senator Bob Casey, who stands at +3. Despite Casey’s modest positive rating, voters appear weary of his tenure. The poll reveals that fewer than 40% believe Casey deserves reelection, while nearly half (47%) say it’s time for new representation. One-third of voters feel strongly about replacing him, including 39% of independents and 19% of Democrats.
Despite these figures, it remains uncertain whether Republican Senate hopeful Dave McCormick can capitalize on this dissatisfaction. While Casey underperforms the generic Democratic ballot by 8 points, he still leads McCormick 46% to 42%, with 13% undecided. Independents are a critical factor in this race, as Casey leads McCormick 46% to 33% among them, a 7-point gain for Casey and a 6-point drop for McCormick since June.
In terms of committed voters, Casey has a notable advantage. Among those who say they’ll “definitely” vote for their candidate, Casey leads McCormick 31% to 15%, casting doubt on McCormick’s ability to attract the crossover voters he needs to win.
Yet, both McCormick and Trump can find hope in the widespread discontent with the direction of the country. A full 66% of respondents believe the nation is on the wrong track, a sentiment consistent across multiple survey administrations. This number includes 40% of Democrats and a significant 62% of independents, indicating that dissatisfaction with Democratic policies could still play a pivotal role in the upcoming election.
As the 2024 race intensifies, the fate of key players like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and their impact on battleground states like Pennsylvania, will likely shape the final outcome. Both Trump and Harris have reasons to closely watch Kennedy’s next moves as they prepare for the crucial months ahead.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
