The American people are fed up with the Biden/Harris administration. They desperately want a change in the White House.
And Democrats are now sounding the alarm after a new report shows this deep blue state on the verge of flipping to Trump.
New Mexico might just surprise everyone this election cycle, as it shows potential to be a dark horse state in the race, with trends appearing favorable for former President Donald Trump.
Historically, New Mexico hasn’t been a primary focus for Republicans, overshadowed by more prominent battleground states. However, recent developments suggest that this state could be more competitive than previously thought.
A poll released by KA Consulting recently showed Trump trailing Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris by a narrow margin — just three percentage points. Trump earned 46% support to Harris’s 49%, a difference that falls within the poll’s +/- 4% margin of error, essentially creating a statistical tie.
🚨🚨🚨
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) October 21, 2024
New Mexico shock poll.
Harris 49, Trump 46
The survey revealed inflation and the economy as top concerns for voters, with 47% citing them as the most important issues. Close behind were immigration and border security, prioritized by 43% of respondents.
Both of these topics align closely with Trump’s campaign message and have been long-standing strengths for him. As New Mexico is a border state with a significant Hispanic population, this could play to Trump’s advantage, particularly given his improved performance among Hispanic voters.
A recent Florida poll even showed Trump leading Harris by double digits among Hispanic voters, with 55% supporting Trump compared to 41% for Harris.
Further evidence of this shift comes from an NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, which found Trump closing the gap with Hispanic voters nationwide.
According to NBC, “Democratic presidential candidate Harris has lost some ground with Latinos at a time when these consequential voters are more likely than the general electorate to cite the economy and the rising cost of living as top priorities.”
This marks a notable change from 2016, when Trump garnered only 19% of the Latino vote. By 2020, he had increased that number to 27%.
In addition to demographic shifts, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his candidacy and back Trump could be a game-changer for the state. Kennedy had been polling at 8% in New Mexico, and his endorsement may further boost Trump’s prospects.
Meanwhile, Election Freedom Inc., a nonprofit organization, is running a significant ad campaign criticizing Harris’s policies, which could sway additional voters in Trump’s favor.
Supporting these trends is a recent poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which shows Harris leading Trump by only four points in New Mexico, signaling an increasingly competitive race.
#New General Election poll - Swing States
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 16, 2024
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +2
Florida - 🔴 Trump +6
N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +2
Georgia - 🟡 Tie
Nevada - 🟡 Tie
Michigan - 🟡 Tie
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +1
New Mexico - 🔵 Harris +4@RedfieldWilton #D - LV - 10/14
There are also indications of strong Republican enthusiasm in the state. Last week, the Albuquerque Journal reported robust early voting turnout, with nearly 4.6% of registered Republicans having already cast their ballots, compared to 4.2% of registered Democrats.
While New Mexico hasn’t voted Republican since 2004, recent polling and voter sentiment suggest that Trump might be within striking distance. In 2016, Trump lost the state by 8.3%, and in 2020 by 10.8%. But the political landscape seems different this time around.
From the start, Trump has made it clear that he intends to compete aggressively in states like New Mexico, sensing an opportunity to flip traditionally Democratic strongholds. “One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump told Breitbart News.
With tightening polls, economic concerns, and strong Hispanic support, New Mexico is emerging as a state to watch in this election.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.