The hits keep on coming for Joe Biden and company. Nothing they seem to do is helping the president rise in the polls.
And this latest election news out of these blue states could be the beginning of the end for the Biden campaign.
In the aftermath of President Biden’s recent debate performance, GOP leaders in New York and New Jersey are optimistic about the possibility of former President Donald Trump securing a historic win in these traditionally blue states. The enthusiasm among Republicans is palpable, as they believe the conditions may be favorable for a significant political shift.
While winning these Democratic strongholds remains a challenging endeavor, political insiders and analysts predict that Trump’s strong performance in suburban areas could bolster Republican efforts to defend and potentially gain House seats.
“Trump can win New York just like Ronald Reagan did in 1980,” asserted Ed Cox, New York State Republican Party chairman.
A recent Siena College poll revealed Trump trailing Biden by a narrow margin of 8 percentage points in New York, with figures standing at 47% to 39% in favor of Biden. This poll was conducted shortly before the pivotal June 25 debate.
An insider from the Trump campaign indicated that internal polling paints a competitive picture in New Jersey, describing the race as a “toss-up.” Trump’s rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, earlier this year drew an impressive crowd of 100,000 supporters, underscoring his appeal in the region.
Cox drew parallels between the current political climate and the conditions during Reagan’s victory, citing economic discontent under Democratic leadership. He argued that “stagflation” under President Jimmy Carter contributed to Reagan’s success, and similarly, many voters today are feeling the pinch of “Bidenflation.”
“New York, a Democratic stronghold for decades, is within reach for Trump. The conditions are ripe for political realignment with New York part of a Trump victory,” Cox said. He emphasized the nuanced political landscape of the state, noting that it is “more blue-collar blue than Upper West Side blue.”
Trump’s campaign themes, focusing on issues such as the border-migrant crisis, the economy, and crime, are resonating with disillusioned voters in the Northeast.
O’Brien “O.B.” Murray, a campaign strategist with experience on both sides of the aisle, commented on the ramifications of Biden’s debate performance for Democrats in swing districts. He noted that Republican Rep. Michael Lawler’s chances of re-election against Democrat Mondaire Jones in New York’s 17th Congressional District appear stronger.
Murray also suggested that Biden’s debate debacle could hinder moderate Democrat John Avlon’s bid to unseat Republican Congressman Nick LaLota in New York’s 1st Congressional District, which covers Long Island’s East End and Suffolk County.
Across the Hudson, New Jersey Republicans are similarly energized, with aspirations that Trump could be the first GOP candidate to carry the state since George H.W. Bush’s victory in 1988 over Michael Dukakis.
“Biden’s debate performance was so bad that New Jersey is definitely in play. The result is that our US Senate candidate, Curtis Bashaw, has a real shot and Congressman [Tom] Kean’s re-election was just made easier,” said Bill Palatucci, a member of the National Republican Campaign Committee and an ally of former Governor Chris Christie.
In response, the New Jersey Republican Party launched an e-fundraising campaign with the bold proclamation, “NEW JERSEY IS IN PLAY.” The message underscored their commitment to mobilizing every voter in the state.
Doug Muzzio, a retired Baruch College public affairs professor residing in New Jersey, characterized Biden’s debate performance as a “disaster,” and speculated that the state might indeed be more competitive in the upcoming election. “It’s New Jersey. Crazy things happen in New Jersey. It’s not impossible. It’s plausible but remotely so,” Muzzio remarked.
Despite these challenges, New York Democrats, led by Governor Kathy Hochul, are rallying behind Biden. Hochul defended the President in a recent MSNBC interview, urging Democrats to stay united and focused. “You have a rough night. The morning after defines you,” she said.
Hochul dismissed criticisms from editorial boards and pundits, emphasizing Biden’s competence and warning against the dangers of a Trump presidency. “I say to my friends who are Democrats: wake up today, start-up with a plan, get back on the team, and march forward to victory,” she urged.
Jay Jacobs, New York State Democratic Party chairman, acknowledged Biden’s rough debate night but remained confident in his recovery. Reflecting on the unpredictability of politics, Jacobs cautioned Republicans against premature celebration, recalling the underestimated impact of the Access Hollywood tape in 2016.
As the political landscape continues to shift, both parties are gearing up for a contentious and closely watched election cycle in these key states.
But the fact that deep blue states like New York and New Jersey are considered “within reach” by GOP officials means that Joe Biden and the Democrats could be in for a very long election night come November 5.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
