Things aren’t looking so good for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. They could very well be on the way to a long election night come November.
And this election expert delivers an ominous warning to the Harris/Walz campaign.
After the Democratic National Convention, the Left, specifically Kamala Harris’ campaign, thought they had the presidential election in the bag.
There was a new sense of so-called “joy” at the convention and a new hope, especially since President Joe Biden had dropped out of the race. Biden’s poll numbers were abysmal at the time in which he bowed out, and many Democrats felt as though a Donald Trump presidency was imminent.
But now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken over as the Democratic nominee, the Left believes they have some momentum.
However, one election expert believes that this momentum isn’t as strong as the Democrats might think.
Election Forecast Reveals Trump Has Best Shot to Win
Nate Silver, a well-known statistician and election analyst, revealed Wednesday that former President Donald Trump is currently in the strongest position to beat Kamala Harris in the November election, more so than at any point in recent months.
In his latest forecast, Silver wrote on his Substack, “The forecast is still in toss-up range, but Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30.”
According to Silver’s latest projections, Trump’s likelihood of winning the Electoral College has increased from 52.4% to 58.2% over the past week, while Harris’ chances have dropped from 47.3% to 41.6%.
Silver’s election model offers a detailed analysis of the current dynamics. He pointed out that Harris hasn’t gained as much traction from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) as some election experts anticipated. “There’s room to debate the convention bounce stuff, but Harris has been getting a lot of mediocre state polls lately,” he noted.
Silver also emphasized Pennsylvania’s crucial role in the upcoming election. Last week, he warned that Harris was at risk of becoming a “slight underdog” in the state, which holds 19 critical electoral votes.
On Wednesday, he added another blow to the Harris campaign, stating on X (formerly Twitter) that Michigan could be a “problem” for Harris following a series of weak poll numbers.
While Harris maintains a slim lead in Michigan, Silver cautioned that the campaign should not feel comfortable. He highlighted that her lead in the battleground state, which holds 15 electoral votes, has narrowed. “National polls and polls of other swing states mostly decent for Harris, but erosion in PA/MI hurts a lot in the model,” Silver posted on X. “In MI, the polling average has fallen from Harris +3.1 pre-DNC to Harris +1.9 now.”
Further complicating the outlook for Harris, Silver wrote on Substack, “The fact is that most polls we’ve seen over the past week are coming in below our current polling averages for Kamala Harris.”
Another potential issue Silver raised was Harris’ decision to pass over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate, which he believes might backfire. “There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what. Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” Silver remarked on X.
Just last month, Silver had projected Harris as a slight favorite to win the presidential election if it were held at that time. However, he was quick to caution against relying too heavily on polling data, especially when it comes to Trump. “If you have the election tomorrow… I think Harris would be a slight favorite,” Silver said. “She has been ahead in most recent polling in the ‘blue wall’ states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada all polling in the margin of error range.”
He also reminded people of two important factors: “One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections, they underestimated Trump.”
As the race progresses, Silver’s forecasts paint a fluctuating landscape, one in which Harris’ campaign will need to regain momentum in several critical states in order to have a chance to defeat Donald Trump.
Stay tuned to The Federalist Wire.
